On Sunday, November 10th, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced the baseline of the territorial waters surrounding Scarborough Shoal, which was seized from the Philippines over a decade ago. This move is seen as a response to the two laws signed by the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. last week aimed at strengthening the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea. According to reports from the Associated Press, the CCP’s action may escalate tensions between China and the Philippines in this strategic waterway.
Both Beijing and Manila claim sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal and other islands and reefs in the South China Sea. In 2012, the CCP seized Scarborough Shoal, which is located west of the Philippine main island of Luzon, and has since exercised “effective control” over the island, while restricting Filipino fishermen’s access to the area.
As tensions escalated, Chinese and Philippine vessels have collided multiple times, with Chinese coast guard using water cannons against Philippine ships and even shining military-grade lasers at Filipino crew members.
Last Thursday, November 7th, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Passage Act, aimed at strengthening the Philippines’ rights and responsibilities in its maritime domain.
The CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the demarcation of baselines is based on international agreements and Chinese law, and criticized Marcos’ signing of the Philippine Maritime Zones Act as a violation of Beijing’s sovereignty in the South China Sea.
China claims sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea, leading to disputes with several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, in the region. The South China Sea is a strategic waterway through which more than $3 trillion worth of shipping trade passes annually.
In 2016, an international arbitration tribunal ruled that most of China’s claims in the South China Sea were invalid, but Beijing rejected the ruling.
President Marcos also mentioned that the two laws he signed established designated sea lanes and air route systems, demonstrating the Philippines’ commitment to upholding the international rules-based order and protecting its rights to peacefully exploit resources in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Regarding the potential escalation of conflicts between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Shi Jianyu, Deputy Researcher at the National Security Institute of the National Institute for Defense Studies, said in an interview with Radio Free Asia that it depends on how the US government is prepared to address the South China Sea issue.
He pointed out that the US government is set to undergo a transition, and believes that their approach to the South China Sea issue may adjust in terms of strategies and tactics, while the fundamental stance will remain unchanged. The US-China strategic competition has already solidified, and the US is unlikely to easily compromise on issues like freedom of navigation.
He also expressed that the legal battles between the two sides are not helpful in resolving the disputes.