Industry insiders and analysts have told Reuters that the export volume of Chinese steel manufacturers is nearing a new high in nearly a decade, with shipments expected to continue increasing in 2025 to address overcapacity and sluggish domestic demand. However, this could exacerbate the escalating trade frictions.
According to data released by the Chinese customs on Monday (October 14), amid the continued softening of the real estate industry suppressing local consumption, China’s steel export volume this year is expected to exceed 100 million tons, the highest level since 2016.
In 2015, China’s steel material exports reached a record 1.124 billion tons. Five analysts predict that by 2025, Chinese steel exports could reach around 90 million to 100 million tons.
China’s largest listed steel company, Baoshan Iron & Steel, set a record in 2023 with steel product exports reaching 5.84 million tons, a 46.6% year-on-year increase. The company stated at the end of August that this year’s shipping target surpasses 6 million tons and aims to achieve over 10 million tons annually by 2028. However, Baosteel did not provide forecasts for exports in 2025.
Officials from two other major steel companies in China told Reuters that they plan to increase exports in 2025 but refused to divulge specific details. An analyst familiar with the situation indicated that seven other steel mills have similar plans.
Lawrence Zhang, Chief Advisor of Steel and Raw Materials Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said, “Low Chinese steel prices, coupled with rising demand from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa (MENA), and India, will drive the risks of China’s steel exports growth in 2025 and beyond.”
The World Steel Association predicts that global steel demand will increase by 1.2% in 2025, reaching 1.77 billion tons.
The significant increase in Chinese steel exports has prompted more countries to lodge complaints. Some countries including Turkey and Indonesia have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products, citing the influx of cheap Chinese steel that harms local manufacturers’ interests.
According to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, there have been 28 trade remedy cases filed against Chinese steel products this year, compared to only 8 cases in the past three years.
Wood Mackenzie’s Zhang stated, “In 2025, this trend of complaints will continue and intensify.”
At a press conference on Monday, a spokesperson for the Chinese customs, when asked about the trade tension situation, stated that most of China’s steel products are produced to meet domestic demand.
Official data from the Chinese government on Friday (October 18) showed a 3.6% year-on-year decline in steel production in the first three quarters of this year, reflecting weak domestic demand. Despite the production decline, China’s exports have significantly increased.
Analysts suggest that the World Steel Association’s forecast of a 3% decrease in China’s steel demand this year and a 1% decrease in 2025 leaves significant room for oversupply in the export market.
In April, U.S. President Joe Biden called for a substantial increase in tariffs on Chinese metal products and emphasized the need to take action to protect the American electric vehicle and solar industries.
Tomas Gutierre, data manager at consulting firm Kallanish Commodities, pointed out that the only trade case that could disrupt China’s export momentum is the anti-dumping investigation launched by Vietnam in July on hot-rolled steel coils, Vietnam being China’s largest steel export market.
“This could be very disruptive. However, ultimately, China’s exports are aimed at clearing its domestic production overcapacity,” he said. “In any case, Chinese exporters will find a price level that allows for exports.”