On October 16, 2024, the Head of the National Security Bureau of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Tsai Ming-yen, pointed out that the continuous expansion of power by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea has triggered international countermeasures. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using a composite approach to threaten Taiwan. The national security team will proactively gather strategic warning intelligence and enhance international intelligence cooperation to safeguard national security and interests.
Tsai Ming-yen, the Head of the National Security Bureau of the Republic of China, today (16th) went to the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee of the Legislative Yuan to present the “National Intelligence Work and National Security Bureau Business Report” and respond to inquiries.
He mentioned that the CCP is facing escalating internal economic and social problems that are difficult to resolve. In response to the “confidence crisis” caused by economic weakness, the Third Plenary Session of the CCP passed the second reform policy document under Xi Jinping’s tenure. However, the CCP’s economic recovery is weak, with a high youth unemployment rate, a stagnant real estate market, increasing public worries about the economic outlook, and a pessimistic mood impacting social order. Local governance chaos has escalated public dissatisfaction, with slogans against Xi Jinping reappearing in Hunan in July, highlighting the worsening contradiction between authorities and the people.
Tsai Ming-yen stated that the CCP continues to expand its influence in the “Three Seas” – the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea, leading to international counteractions. Xi Jinping has been pushing the PLA to assert dominance in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea. In the Taiwan Strait, the PLA is enhancing coastal airport infrastructure and conducting military-police joint exercises to pressure Taiwan with a new operational concept. Additionally, they have conducted exercise “Operation Mirage—2024B” around Taiwan to display external deterrence.
Regarding the East China Sea, Tsai Ming-yen mentioned that the CCP sent four armed coast guard ships to disrupt the waters around the Diaoyu Islands in June, and periodically dispatched these ships to patrol near the Japanese southwestern islands, testing their naval mobility. Furthermore, in August, a Y-9 reconnaissance aircraft intruded into Japanese airspace for the first time, and in September, the Liaoning aircraft carrier crossed the Miyako Strait (within 24 nautical miles of Japan’s territorial waters) towards the Western Pacific for training, continuously strengthening control over the strategic waterways of the First Island Chain.
In the South China Sea, Tsai Ming-yen stated that in June, the CCP forcibly inspected Philippine vessels. While an interim agreement was reached between the Philippines and China regarding resupplying Ayungin Shoal in July, the PLA continued aggressive maritime claims, including throwing flares on a Philippine transport plane’s flight path and ramming a Philippine Coast Guard vessel. Additionally, after an eight-year hiatus, China and Russia conducted the “Maritime Exercises—2024” in the South China Sea, signaling joint positions and increasing the risk of misjudgment.
Given the CCP’s expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, Tsai Ming-yen emphasized that the United States and its allies have reiterated the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and opposed China’s unlawful claims and provocations in the South China Sea. The U.S. has been centralizing its Indo-Pacific strategy around the U.S.-Japan alliance and has been actively promoting various multilateral mechanisms such as the AUKUS (Australia-UK-US), Quad (US-India-Japan-Australia), to enhance collective maritime law enforcement capabilities and joint military operations.
He further stated that European countries are increasingly concerned about the stability in the Indo-Pacific region and China’s unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. This has led them to increase naval transits through the Taiwan Strait and participate in Indo-Pacific military exercises to defend the international order and contain China’s power expansion.
Tsai Ming-yen mentioned that the CCP continues its “composite” threats and coercion against Taiwan since “Taiwan’s Presidential Inauguration Day” on May 20th. Militarily, the PLA has conducted a series of military exercises titled “Operation Mirage—2024A, B,” involving joint operations with the coast guard for the first time, aimed at intimidating Taiwan through simulated attack animations, and intensifying both military and propaganda pressure on the island. Economically, China has employed a strategy of applying pressure and inducement tactics on Taiwan, which includes canceling tariff reduction items under the ECFA and implementing a “dual treatment” policy to strengthen agricultural united front work to highlight the so-called benefits of the “One China” principle.
Tsai Ming-yen noted that diplomatically, China has distorted UN Resolution 2758 concerning the sovereignty of the Republic of China and expanded its promotion of the “One China” principle internationally, obstructing Taiwan’s participation in international organizations like the World Health Assembly (WHA), attempting to erode Taiwan’s diplomatic relations. Legally, the CCP has issued the “22 Measures for Punishing Taiwan Independence,” and the Taiwan Affairs Office website has added a “punishing separatism” column with a reporting mailbox, to intensify intimidation efforts against pro-independence sentiment and sow internal discord in Taiwan.
He pointed out that in terms of united front work, the CCP has adopted a strategy of differentiation and division to control the dominant narrative in cross-strait relations, deliberately creating a “cold official, warm civilian” atmosphere to attract grassroots and young people from Taiwan to China. They have been promoting regional exchanges and cultural united front work, using short videos and propaganda to package their ideology and confuse the people’s perceptions.
Regarding the issue of cyber threats, Tsai Ming-yen mentioned that in April, China restructured its military by establishing an independent “cyberspace force,” actively integrating and deploying cyber warfare capabilities. China continues to expand its cyber warfare capabilities and recruit civilian hackers to engage in hacking activities targeting sensitive areas such as central and local governments, high-tech parks, as well as critical infrastructure sectors like energy and transportation, posing a significant threat to Taiwan’s cybersecurity.
In terms of information warfare, Tsai Ming-yen stated that China has intensified the use of online navy, fake accounts, and AI technology, among other methods, in cognitive warfare against Taiwan. They have been manipulating information on defense and diplomacy issues to sow discontent among Taiwanese citizens. On defense issues, they exaggerate the gap between the military strengths of both sides, and on diplomatic matters, they propagate the “One China principle” internationally to diminish the sovereignty of the Republic of China.
Tsai Ming-yen said that the National Security Bureau and other security units are fulfilling their legal duties to gather intelligence in order to counteract the CCP’s infiltration and handle national security incidents, and to continue advancing cryptographic controls and research, as well as enhancing special security tasks to ensure comprehensive protection for special missions.
He mentioned that the future focus of the National Security Bureau includes: expanding intelligence gathering and research capabilities to respond proactively to international changes; strengthening search and detection capabilities to counteract threats in a timely manner; supporting the investigation and handling of national security incidents through meticulous deployment; continually enhancing cybersecurity protection to ensure secure information transmission channels; and enhancing information warfare prevention capabilities to safeguard public discourse areas.
In conclusion, Tsai Ming-yen emphasized that in the face of rapidly changing domestic and international security situations, the national security team will flexibly adjust their investigative approach, proactively gather strategic warning intelligence, utilize the support of the international democratic community, enhance international intelligence cooperation, construct a timely and robust international strategic intelligence network, and defend national security and interests.