Welcome to the December 16th edition of “News Insight,” where we uncover the news. Our guest for this episode is former U.S. Department of Defense official Hu Zhendong, hosted by Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Why can’t the CCP win no matter how they fight? The U.S. military takes steps to control and build a 360-degree missile interception network in Guam! Will Trump 2.0 sell more arms to Taiwan? The first batch of the most powerful tanks on the ground sent from the United States to Taiwan! Exclusive details on how powerful the M1A2T is!
The American-made M1A2T main battle tanks sold during Trump’s first term have arrived in Taiwan. During Trump’s second term, does the ROC military have the opportunity to complete the third-generation force development upgrade? Rumored list includes F-35, Aegis warships.
The PLA’s large-scale deployment around the first island chain seems to reveal part of their plan to attack Taiwan, aiming directly at central Taipei, and fearing backlash along the coastal economic zone of mainland China. Japanese officials have warned that the CCP is attempting to create a new normal, posing a new challenge to the U.S. and Japan. How will the U.S. military and allies respond? What does it mean for Guam to test a missile interception system for the first time for island chain defense?
Starting from December 9, the PLA has deployed massively in the northern, eastern, and southern theaters, delineating seven coastal reserved areas extending from northern Taiwan to parts of the Taiwan Strait; over 90 ships deployed around the first island chain, including the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the western Pacific farther east of Taiwan. The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) stated that this scale is similar to previous large-scale military exercises.
Please ask Mr. Hu Zhendong about the strategic and tactical threats posed by the PLA’s recent deployments. It seems to hint at possible blockade and attack plans towards northern Taiwan?
Let’s look at Taiwan, the U.S., and their allies’ response. ROC military immediately initiated preparedness drills. The U.S. three carrier strike groups – the Washington was in the northern direction (based in Japan), the Carl Vinson heading east (Philippine Sea), and the Lincoln in the south (eastward in the South China Sea). On Japanese soil, a joint U.S.-Japan-Australia military exercise involving 7,000 personnel took place, with observers from various nations including the Philippines.
Mr. Hu Zhendong, what is the strategic and tactical significance of the U.S. actions in your observation?
The PLA’s massive deployment this time did not receive widespread publicity, ending with a vague statement threatening Taiwan afterward. Reuters quoted experts who believe that the new CCP strategy against Taiwan aims to create chaos. The Financial Times cited a senior Japanese official on December 15 stating that the CCP might be creating a “new normal,” implying that the PLA can conduct exercises of this scale without prior notice, making it difficult for Taiwan, the U.S., and allies to respond.
Could you explain the reports from the Financial Times and Reuters regarding gray zone exercises? How might the U.S. and allies respond to the consumption of resources by China, Japan, and Taiwan, as well as their potential actions in the event of war?
Taiwan and Okinawa are in key positions along the first island chain. During President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit in December, she transited through the two major U.S. strategic towns: Hawaii in the third island chain and Guam in the second island chain.
While the PLA conducted a major deployment, the U.S. announced its first successful missile interception test in Guam on the 10th. The security of U.S. Pacific bases is now assured. A U.S. think tank report warned that China may attempt to disable American and allied airports with missile attacks.
Could you explain the importance of Guam in defending the first island chain? How will the deployment of a large number of missiles for defense affect Indo-Pacific security and deterrence? According to VOA reports, this signifies a significant step forward in installing large-scale air defense systems in Guam, providing 360-degree protection as a key move towards fortifying this strategic outpost. The test also demonstrated the joint and interconnected nature of the American forces defending Guam, involving regional allies.
On Sunday the 15th, the U.S. approved the sale of 108 M1A2T tanks to Taiwan, with the first batch of 38 tanks arriving at a Taiwanese port. These tanks will be stationed in Hsinchu to provide increased speed and firepower to counter the PLA’s main battle tanks.
In your observation, Mr. Hu Zhendong, what role and assistance will these tanks provide for Taiwan’s defense?
During Trump’s first term, arms sales to Taiwan exceeded $18 billion, including advanced weapons such as 66 F-16V fighters, M1A2T tanks, Harpoon missiles, SLAM-ER missiles, and the Harpoon Multiple Launch Rocket System. Biden’s administration continues with arms sales. Many assess that Taiwan intends to purchase more new weapons during Trump’s second term to balance trade deficits and demonstrate its defense commitment.
Mr. Hu Zhendong, what is your assessment of the overall attitude towards arms sales to Taiwan during Trump’s second term? With each major arms purchase, China exerts pressure to obstruct, and there may be internal questioning in Taiwan. After accumulating significant arms purchases over the past four years, is it still necessary to make more purchases now?
On the 15th, the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank, released a report comparing arms sales to Taiwan under two presidents – Trump focusing on traditional weapons while Biden emphasizes asymmetrical capabilities. It is rumored that Taiwan may want to acquire F-35 fighters, Aegis destroyers, more Patriot missiles, and discussions have mentioned replacing Mirage 2000 with F-15E. Some believe the focus should be on drones and asymmetric air defense systems, while others argue that platforms like the F-35 would be beneficial. Upgrades for Taiwan’s warships with Aegis systems have also been suggested.
How do you view these various viewpoints in terms of direction and perspectives? Do you think Taiwan has a chance to acquire these weapons? Additionally, the possibilities for Taiwan-U.S. defense supply chain cooperation discussed previously could still be viable?
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