【Current Affairs Update】Russia-Ukraine Conflict Intensifies, Ukraine Draws Red Line

Hello everyone, welcome to “Current Affairs Scan”. I am Jin Ran. Please subscribe to our channel, support us, like, comment, and share.

Today’s focus: Escalation of Russo-Ukrainian War – NATO: Putin becoming increasingly desperate; North Korea joins the battle, Putin wants to “fight the oligarchs”; Zelensky draws the red line of war – South Korean tanks spotted in Poland; France equips Ukrainian army with brand new combat brigade, Ukraine security agency exposes UN agent.

Recently, the news of North Korea sending troops to assist Russia in battle has caused quite a stir. While various media reports may have their own interpretations, the Secretary-General of NATO coming forward can be seen as the formal confirmation of the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

On October 28, NATO Secretary-General Lute officially announced: “I can confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia and deployed in the Kursk region. The entry of North Korean troops is a significant escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war.”

In Lute’s speech, there are several points worth noting: firstly, NATO once again confirmed that North Korea has provided Russia with millions of shells and ballistic missiles. In exchange, Putin has provided military technology and other support to North Korea to evade international sanctions. Secondly, Lute pointed out: over 600,000 Russian soldiers have died or been injured in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Without foreign military support now, Putin cannot sustain the attack on Ukraine.

Lute believes: the deployment of North Korean troops in the Kursk region shows that Putin is becoming increasingly desperate. Additionally, North Korea’s involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian war also represents a significant escalation in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, Lute stated that he will have further discussions with the South Korean President and the Ukrainian Minister of Defense to negotiate further actions.

Some may think that we already knew about North Korea sending troops, so what’s the point of repeating the NATO Secretary-General’s words. Please note: while the media and we may already know, the difference is significant when the NATO Secretary-General officially confirms it. If NATO fully lifts all restrictions on sending NATO weapons to Ukraine, it will already put a lot of pressure on Putin. The Pentagon has hinted that once North Korea’s involvement is confirmed, restrictions on using American long-range weapons in Ukraine will be lifted.

Even more importantly, North Korea’s involvement is like opening Pandora’s box, giving NATO the first step to intervene personally at some point in the future. In other words, since North Korea can assist Russia on its territory, NATO can go to Ukraine’s land “to defend its own home” to protect Europe.

In my view, Putin inviting North Korea to assist in battle is a bad move. It’s important to note that it’s not World War II era anymore, where simply deploying thousands of soldiers could gain a strategic advantage through sheer numbers. Sending unexperienced and tactically outdated North Korean soldiers into the current situation provides little help to the Russian forces but rather adds cannon fodder and forces NATO to intensify support for Ukraine.

Just on October 27, based on the Russian military casualties released by the Ukrainian General Staff, there were 1440 Russian soldiers killed in a single day, with daily casualties exceeding 1,000. If over 10,000 inexperienced North Korean soldiers are deployed into the intense battlefield, they would likely be wiped out within half a month. The question arises: why would Kim Jong-un send a large number of North Korean soldiers to the Russian battlefield? It’s because North Korea is severely lacking foreign currency under international sanctions, and Russia offered to pay each North Korean soldier $2,000 per month. This deal could earn Kim Jong-un $20 million in income per month, faster and more than any other “overseas labor,” but at the cost of North Korean soldiers’ lives. This fact was clearly articulated by a defected North Korean People’s Army officer.

Putin’s hasty move to involve North Korean troops now forces him to adopt internal measures like “robbing the rich, distributing land.” Reports suggest that Russia is planning to forcibly convert personal and corporate deposits and valuables in bank vaults into national debt, estimated at around $1 trillion, to support the enormous cost of the Russo-Ukrainian war. I am skeptical about Putin actually going through with this, as such implementation is likely to trigger widespread discontent among all Russian citizens, potentially leading to a significant national crisis.

Recently, The Times of India revealed that Zelensky had expressed: “Negotiations with Russia can take place in India.” This caught my attention. The article clearly quoted discussions between Zelensky and Indian Prime Minister Modi. Firstly, Zelensky stated that if Putin wishes to negotiate, it must be in the manner set by Ukraine since the war is being waged on their soil, pointing out the existing platform – the second Kyiv Summit for Peace organized by Ukraine.

Furthermore, Zelensky believed that Prime Minister Modi could influence the end of the war. Merely stating “neutrality” would imply support for Russia. There are several ways to apply pressure on Russia, such as blocking Russia’s defense industry and economy, lowering energy prices (as Russia primarily relies on oil exports to fund the war).

Zelensky specifically emphasized Ukraine’s opposition to the concept of “freezing the war” for now since it would only give Russia breathing room to continue the conflict. He cited the 2014 Crimea war that was frozen through negotiations, only to have Russia initiate a full-scale war in 2022. Therefore, Ukraine does not want a third war. The implicit message is clear: the Russo-Ukrainian war must end on Ukraine’s terms, or there must be a clear and undeniable outcome.

In my opinion, wars between nations often lead to continuous escalation, resulting in mutual destruction. If another country intervenes, it may truly ignite a world war.

Regarding the direct involvement of North Korean troops in the Russo-Ukrainian war, many people may think South Korea’s options are limited. However, without directly causing smoke on their own land, South Korea actually has more options.

Recently, media reported that South Korea’s K-2 Black Panther main battle tanks have begun serving in the Polish army, a country bordering Ukraine that provides significant support to Ukraine. The South Korean-produced Black Panther tank is considered the most powerful tank in Asia. Poland has purchased 980 “Black Panther” tanks from Korea. It is expected that by the end of this year, 84 tanks will be delivered first. If NATO joins the conflict, South Korea’s Black Panther tanks are likely to be among the first tanks to enter Ukraine.

On October 28, reports indicated that nearly 200 North Korean defectors living in South Korea are planning to form a volunteer army to go to Ukraine. These former North Korean military personnel each have seven to ten years of military experience. Their role in Ukraine will not be combatants but rather leveraging their understanding of North Korean troops and their psychological vulnerabilities to launch psychological warfare against North Korean officials and soldiers on the frontlines in Russia-Ukraine.

Currently, support from Western countries for Ukraine spans various levels. On October 28, the Ukrainian military announced that the first factory of the well-known German company Rheinmetall, located in Ukraine, produced the first “Lynx” armored combat vehicle. This infantry fighting vehicle is considered the heaviest and best-protected infantry fighting vehicle in the world, weighing 44 tons, equipped with a 35mm caliber gun and anti-tank missile launcher, crewed by 3 people, and can accommodate up to 9 soldiers for joint operations, providing a significant boost for seasoned Ukrainian soldiers.

Also, on October 28, with assistance from France, Ukraine has established a brand new combat brigade: the 155th “Annikiv Kyiv Brigade,” consisting of approximately 4,500 soldiers, including a tank battalion, 3 mechanized battalions, an infantry battalion, an artillery battalion, and a rear support unit (covering air defense, engineering, unmanned aerial combat teams). The military equipment is firepower-packed: in addition to German-made Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks used by NATO forces, all other equipment is French-made, including wheeled infantry carriers, wheeled artillery vehicles, and the renowned Caesar 155mm heavy self-propelled howitzer. This equips Ukraine with a NATO-style French combat brigade.

Recently, in the Middle East, scandals involving UN personnel covertly aiding Hamas, even terrorists themselves, have made headlines unexpectedly. Similarly, in the Russo-Ukrainian battlefield, individuals are carrying out unspeakable actions under the guise of UN personnel. On October 28, Ukraine’s Security Service arrested a 34-year-old employee of the United Nations World Food Programme in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. This individual, taking advantage of aid deliveries of food, moved around warfare zones and nearby settlements, recording the coordinates of Ukrainian positions, and transmitting relevant information to a confirmed Russian intelligence officer. Russian troops utilized the provided locations to conduct bombing in the hottest frontline of the Pokrovsk area. Subsequently, this person was caught by Ukraine’s Security Service during a subsequent operation.

The Ukrainian Security Service also revealed that similar operatives often use three identities for camouflage: UN-deployed personnel, international journalists, and so-called humanitarian volunteers. Under the Ukrainian Penal Code Article 111, this captured UN employee caught in the act may face a life sentence.

Alright, this edition of “Current Affairs Scan” concludes here. We need your support; please subscribe to our channel, support us, like, comment, and share. Your direct financial support would be greatly appreciated. Until the next issue.