Welcome to the “News Insight” on Friday, February 14. In this episode, our guest speakers included Dr. Ming Juzheng, Honorary Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, and Wu Sezhi, Director of the China Research Center at the Taiwan Think Tank. The host is Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s Focus:
President Trump’s statement shakes up China! Will the U.S.-Japan alliance extend its deterrence to include Taiwan? What is the next step for Russia and Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached? Will the U.S. and Russia unite against China? Trump is ready to confront Xi Jinping! What if Iran chooses to cooperate with Trump?
Trump confirmed talks with the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine to initiate negotiations to end the war. Foreign media revealed that China is attempting to exclude Ukraine from participation and even wants to send Chinese troops as peacekeepers. Will Trump agree to this plan? What is Putin’s stance? In this negotiation, will Ukraine or China be marginalized?
Trump unexpectedly proposed trilateral nuclear arms control talks with China and Russia, aiming to reduce military spending and nuclear weapons. Will China accept the challenge? Trump also announced plans to sell F-35 fighter jets to India, potentially impacting the relationships among the U.S., China, and Russia.
According to reports, Israel is planning to carry out air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump suggested that Iran may seek an agreement to avoid such an attack.
During the U.S.-Japan summit between Trump and Prime Minister Shobun on the Taiwan Strait, will the series of military actions with allied powers dispel doubts about Trump’s intentions?
The Kyiv Independent reported that on the 12th, Trump confirmed separate talks with Putin and Zelensky. Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Rubio will officially begin negotiations with Zelensky in Munich on the 14th to discuss ending the war. Trump hopes for a positive outcome and stated, “It is time to end this absurd war which has caused unnecessary casualties. God bless the people of Russia and Ukraine!”
Questions for Dr. Ming Juzheng:
1. Will the war come to an end?
2. What is the current role of China, often called the “key enabler of war” by NATO?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson stated during a speech in Kyiv on the 12th that if Washington and Kyiv reach a mineral agreement, it would provide Ukraine with a “security shield” post-war. How should we interpret this “security shield” proposed by the U.S. considering earlier plans for European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine?
Amid Trump’s talks with Putin and Zelensky, it appears that China’s role is being marginalized. Overseas Chinese scholar Yuan Hongbing revealed on the 12th that there are murmurs in Beijing’s official circles, including Xi Jinping criticizing Foreign Minister Wang Yi. This was due to Xi’s request for a critical negotiation between the U.S., Russia, and China in China to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, sidelining China altogether.
However, “The Wall Street Journal” reported on the 13th that there are intentions within China to push for a U.S.-Russia summit, excluding Ukraine’s participation. Additionally, China’s proposed peace agreement involves China dispatching peacekeeping forces to the region as “guarantors,” raising suspicions about China’s true intentions. The White House refused to confirm receiving this proposal, stating that it is “completely unfeasible.”
Questions for Wu Sezhi:
1. Considering sources from “The Wall Street Journal” and Yuan Hongbing, is China being marginalized or concealing its role?
2. Trump promised Ukrainian involvement in negotiations, but the participation of China remains uncertain. With Trump pursuing separate talks, could this be a grand gesture to China and Russia to discuss military spending and nuclear disarmament?
The conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war will be discussed in Munich from the 14th to the 16th by Western and NATO allies. U.S. Defense Secretary Haggis at the Ukraine Defense Liaison Group meeting at NATO headquarters stated that expecting Ukraine to return to its pre-2014 Crimea annexation borders is unrealistic. Moreover, the Trump administration does not view Ukraine’s NATO membership as a solution to the conflict.
The U.S. peace plan involves deploying international forces from Europe outside NATO to peacekeep, whereas the U.S. focuses on deterring conflict with China in the Pacific. However, “The Wall Street Journal” reported that China is pushing its version of the agreement behind the scenes, excluding Ukraine and potentially sending Chinese (troops) as peacekeepers.
Question for Wu Sezhi:
How do you view the U.S. expectation for European countries to take charge of European security while China attempts to involve Chinese troops under the guise of “peacekeeping”?
Trump issued a final ultimatum to Israel, demanding the release of all hostages by Saturday (15th). According to a report from “The Wall Street Journal” on the 12th, during Biden’s tenure, U.S. intelligence agencies assessed Israel’s potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent nuclear development and mitigate threats, potentially seeking Trump’s support.
Previously, on February 4, Trump’s executive order restored maximum pressure on Iran. In an interview aired on FOX News on the 10th, Trump mentioned Iran losing significant defense capabilities and being nervous, leading him to believe Iran would be willing to reach an agreement. He expressed a preference for reaching an agreement over bombing Iran. What is Dr. Ming Juzheng’s opinion on this?
During the U.S.-Japan summit between President Trump and Prime Minister Shobun on February 8 in Washington, concerns were alleviated as the joint U.S.-Japan leaders’ statement emphasized maintaining peace and security in the Taiwan Strait, showcasing their multi-domain cooperation with allies against China.
Question for Dr. Ming Juzheng:
Did the Trump-Shobun meeting dispel doubts about Trump’s leanings towards China, and why did Trump emphasize peace and security in the Taiwan Strait during their first meeting?
Within three weeks of Trump taking office, the U.S. military confirmed the deployment of warships for a three-day transit through the Taiwan Strait, which triggered China’s concerns. On the 12th, the U.S. Defense Secretary called on allies in Europe to assume responsibility for Europe to enable the U.S. to focus on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. NATO’s Secretary-General stated that apart from Ukraine, Europe should work with the U.S. in response to the Indo-Pacific situation.
Question for Wu Sezhi:
What are your observations on these developments?
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