Today’s Focus: Beijing’s Claimed GDP Growth Rate Mocked by Netizens; Experts: Fabricated; Beijing Intensifies Overseas Monitoring, Chinese Students Abroad “Fearful and Helpless”; Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Ceasefire Agreement, Both Sides to Exchange Hostages.
The Chinese official data released on the 17th claimed that in 2024, China’s GDP growth rate was 5%, meeting the expected target. The data indicates that the total value of China’s domestic production in 2024 was 134.9 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase. The average urban survey unemployment rate nationwide was 5.1%, with 31 major cities’ urban survey unemployment rate at 5%. The average weekly working hours for Chinese enterprise employees were 49 hours. By the end of 2024, China’s population was 1.4828 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million compared to the end of 2023, with a population natural growth rate of -0.99%.
While the official data appears stable or slightly improved, the market and the public’s actual feelings sharply contrast with the official numbers. What is hidden behind this data? Let’s take a closer look:
Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University and former head of the China department at the International Monetary Fund, told Reuters, “Given the continued weak domestic demand, persistent deflationary pressures, and the sluggish real estate and stock markets, it seems doubtful that China could precisely achieve the 5% growth target in 2024.”
Herro, the chief economist for Asia Pacific at a French bank, told Reuters that whether China’s economy can achieve the government’s growth target has become unimportant. He said, “Will global investors choose to invest in China just because it achieved 5% growth? No.”
The latest data from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce shows that from January to December 2024, the actual use of foreign investment by China was 826.25 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 27.1% year-on-year. This data reveals that a large amount of foreign capital has fled, significantly weakening the attractiveness of the mainland in the international investment market.
Recently, Chinese economist Gao Shanwen publicly stated on social media that China’s GDP growth rate has been overestimated by 10 percentage points over the past three years. He predicts that in the next 3 to 5 years, China’s economic growth rate will be below 5%. However, he said, “We all know that the official figures will always be around 5%.” Although Gao Shanwen’s post has been censored, his predictions align with official data.
The media has raised questions, “Can we trust the eye-catching economic data for the year?”
In reality, due to the sluggish real estate market and sharp decline in land fiscal revenue, the Chinese economy can be said to be in a mess.
The continued downturn of the real estate industry continues to drag down the Chinese economy. According to official Chinese statistics, in 2024, the total investment in real estate development in the country was 10.028 trillion yuan, a 10.6% decrease year-on-year. Residential investment was 7.604 trillion yuan, down 10.5%. This data indicates a significant weakening in demand and investment confidence in the real estate market. The unsold area of commercial housing increased by 10.6% year-on-year, indicating the overall downturn of the real estate industry.
Additionally, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in July 2024, the urban youth unemployment rate aged 16-24 was 19.9%, indicating that at least nearly 20% of young people were jobless at that time. The situation this year will be even more severe, with the number of college graduates reaching as high as 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 from the previous year. Due to the sluggish market, it is difficult for companies to place these additional labor forces. How will the authorities cope with this?
At the same time, the increasing pressure of retirement pensions brought about by the aging population is also growing day by day. Although local governments have not explicitly stated that they will reduce retirement pensions, they have required young people to actively pay social security to maintain the fund flow. However, unemployed young people even lack basic income, so how can they contribute to their own retirement pensions? This vicious cycle will further exacerbate social conflicts.
The economic instability not only traps vulnerable groups in predicaments but also brings great suffering to the high-income groups.
Mr. Wang, a senior executive at an automation service company in Beijing, said that his income decreased by 16% in 2024. Due to the poor economy, the company had to lay off employees, and he anticipates further layoffs this year. He told Reuters, “The official economic data is different from the feelings of most people.”
Ms. Zhang, a 25-year-old working at an investment bank in Beijing, said she felt like 2024 was an economic landslide, as her salary was cut twice, reducing by 30%. With decreased income, she had to significantly cut down expenses. Even so, she mentioned that she was not the worst off; seven or eight of her colleagues had lost their jobs. The company is now filled with an atmosphere of uncertainty.
Regarding China’s economic outlook for 2025, Lin, the chief economist at the Berlin Mercator China Research Center, expressed to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, “It is difficult to expect a significant improvement in China’s economy in 2025. After all, Trump’s stance on China in economic and trade issues will be firmer than the Biden administration’s.”
Recently, a document obtained by the Voice of America from the Chinese official source reveals that the Beijing authorities seem to be taking broader measures to screen and monitor overseas Chinese.
On January 9, Li Ning, a Chinese student studying in Canada, received a message from his father in Hubei province, telling him that local police had visited their home, inquiring about Li Ning’s contact information and requesting him to provide some details. If he didn’t cooperate, he would encounter troubles when he returns to China.
Helplessly, Li Ning added the deputy director of the Wangzhan Station Police Station in Macheng City, Wu Rui, on WeChat. He was subsequently asked to submit specific personal information such as address and contact details.
Afterward, Li Ning received a document titled “Xinjiang Border Defense Inspection Station Data Analysis and Judgment Cooperation.” The document required the Chinese Immigration Bureau and dozens of provincial and municipal public security bureau immigration departments to assist in identifying individuals on the list.
This document listed detailed information of several hundred monitored individuals, including home addresses, ID numbers, passport numbers, with Li Ning ranked 38th on the list.
Li Ning expressed extreme fear and anxiety over this incident. He recalled that he had given a special interview to the Voice of America in 2022, explaining the reasons for leaving China during the Wuhan pandemic. However, he did not make any sensitive remarks during the interview. He confessed, “I simply shared my experience of being locked up.”
Regarding why this document was issued by the Xinjiang department, Li Ning speculated it might be related to the local advanced facial recognition technology. Feeling extremely panicked after receiving the document, he reached out to a friend working in a public security system. The friend’s response further frightened him as he said, “in times of financial strain, the specific contact must have special reasons.”
Li Ning remarked that recalling past cases of transnational oppression, he felt anxious about his safety and chose to “speak out or perish.” He stated that if he doesn’t speak up now, the next step could entail confessing on CCTV.
In response to the Li Ning incident, a reporter with the Voice of America contacted Wu Rui, the Deputy Director of the Wangzhan Station Police Station. Wu Rui confirmed his contact with Li Ning and emphasized that this verification was “based on evidence,” but did not elaborate on the reasons for the incident or possible consequences. He suggested the reporter contact the political department of the public security bureau for further information, but when the reporter called the number he provided, they were informed that such services were not available.
Zhou Fengsuo, an expert who has long been concerned about China’s transnational oppression issues, stated that the Chinese government has long been trying to fully control overseas Chinese, with their methods becoming more overt in recent years. He pointed out that Beijing’s means of controlling overseas individuals currently mainly focus on the mental level, including harassment, threatening family members, or coercing voluntary returns. He said, “The CCP’s crisis has led them to continuously tighten control, and modern technology has made surveillance easier.”
From the period of the Cultural Revolution viewing “overseas ties” as a political crime to monitoring through big data technology today, the sensitivity of the Chinese Communist Party to the term “overseas” has long existed. Recent messages from various sources indicate that Beijing is collecting information on overseas Chinese and students through units and community network management, expanding their surveillance scope.
Beijing-based lawyer Lai Jianping mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party has long tried to control Chinese communities through information gathering and suppression methods. He stated, “A few years ago, the public security department in my hometown harassed my family. I’ve also heard of many friends facing similar situations. The establishment and maintenance of the CCP regime are based on creating fear. As long as you are Chinese, it won’t spare you.” With the current political upheaval in China, the CCP has become more fearful, and its oppressive measures have become more severe. “Even those with little notoriety overseas may end up on the CCP’s blacklist.”
He urged overseas Chinese to unite and bravely speak out, believing that “preventing the spread of CCP’s fear is the most effective way to combat this oppression.”
Veteran activist Wang Juntao also noted that the CCP’s purpose is to limit the movements of overseas Chinese by controlling their relatives. He pointed out, “The more you are afraid, the more the CCP advances; but when you are truly fearless, the CCP will feel powerless.”
On January 17, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the Israeli cabinet had approved the ceasefire agreement reached with Hamas, with the first batch of hostages to be released on the 19th.
According to the arrangement of the first phase of the agreement, Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages, including all women (soldiers and civilians), children, and men over 50. At the same time, Israel will release about 95 Palestinian prisoners, including women and minors. The agreement is divided into three stages, with plans to complete more hostage and prisoner exchanges within six weeks.
The exchange operation is seen by the public as a vital step in ending the 15-month-long war. The White House spokesperson expressed support for the agreement’s progress, believing that the ceasefire will be initiated as early as this weekend.
As of now, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has led to over 46,000 deaths in the Gaza Strip, leaving many displaced. The signing of the ceasefire agreement is seen as a hope for restoring peace in the Gaza region.
However, there is severe internal discord within Netanyahu’s administration regarding the exchange agreement. Hardline officials believe that the ceasefire agreement failed to achieve the complete dismantling of Hamas and was a “reckless concession.”
After reaching the agreement, the Israeli army will gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip, allowing Palestinians to return home. The release of the remaining hostages will depend on further negotiations after the first phase is completed. Hamas has made clear that only a comprehensive agreement on total withdrawal and a lasting ceasefire will lead to the release of the remaining hostages.
With the progress of the agreement, the international community cautiously expresses optimism about the prospects of peace. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken urged all parties to resolve outstanding issues quickly and emphasized the importance of releasing hostages and cessation of hostilities. However, at present, there are still differences in positions between the two parties in the implementation of the agreement, making it unclear whether long-lasting peace can be achieved. We will continue to follow how the situation develops in the future.
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– The Focus of the Epoch Production Team #