Hello everyone, welcome to “Current Events Scan.” I am Jin Ran. Please subscribe to our channel, support us, like, comment, and share.
Today’s focus: Heads of Two Major US and British Departments Visit Kyiv Together, Fear of Putin’s Worst Nightmare Coming True; Two Missiles Covering Moscow Makes Zelensky Furious; Russian Enclave Seeking Independence, Chinese Military Academy Professor Supporting Ukraine Disciplined.
After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the US Secretary of State and the British Foreign Minister have visited the Ukrainian capital several times. However, it is rare for the two to agree to a joint visit to Kyiv.
On September 11, US Secretary of State Blinken and British Foreign Minister Rami visited Ukraine together and on the same day announced providing over $700 million in aid each to Ukraine. This combined aid totaling up to $1.5 billion is additional assistance provided on top of existing substantial aid.
Due to recent Russian military airstrikes damaging a significant portion of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the majority of the aid funds are allocated to help repair Ukraine’s power plants and strengthen energy infrastructure. $102 million from the US aid will be specifically used for demining.
Regarding the circulating claim online that the US has allowed Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles to target Russian mainland, upon verification, neither the US nor Ukraine has confirmed this information officially. However, multiple sources have recently reported this claim. Firstly, six Republican congressmen led by the chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee Turner submitted a signed letter urging President Biden to immediately lift all restrictions on Ukraine using American weapons.
The most reliable information is that the Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, McCaul, hinted on September 10 that Blinken’s visit to Kyiv would inform Zelensky that Ukraine would be allowed to start using US Army tactical missiles and NATO’s “Shadow of the Storm” cruise missiles to strike deep into Russian territory.
So when will this news be officially announced after circulating for some time? My guess is that it will be during the meeting between Zelensky and Biden at the United Nations in New York in a few days. In my opinion, the joint visit of US and British diplomatic heads to Ukraine not only indicates that they are finalizing details with Zelensky in person before the official announcement but also presents a clear diplomatic stance to the public. In fact, Blinken’s remarks in Kyiv have already endorsed this.
Once Western long-range weapons are unleashed, how much of a threat will it pose to Russia? Let’s look at this map: Based on the range of long-range missiles, a map has been drawn showing the areas of Russia that can be reached from within Ukraine. Firstly, with a range of 300 kilometers, US Army tactical missiles could cover Crimea and six border regions of Russia, including Kursk Oblast, which has been invaded by Ukrainian forces.
I had previously introduced the advanced AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile of the US military with a basic range of 360 kilometers that can be launched by F-16s. It can strike Russian territories within this range. In addition, NATO provides the “Shadow of the Storm” cruise missile with a range of 560 kilometers, noting that Moscow is also within range, and the labeled red dots represent Russian military bases or important facilities.
Analyzing the situations in which Ukraine has used drones to attack Moscow before, Russia’s air defense system is not as impenetrable as they once boasted but rather full of loopholes. So what would happen when more advanced long-range missiles from the West strike? Imagine the consequences if long-range missiles are combined with drone attacks. They are all very frightening. In fact, for the Russian military, another piece of news is what truly terrifies them.
Reports say that on September 10, the White House discussed extending the range of US Army tactical missiles used by the Ukrainian military from 300 kilometers to 550 kilometers. This means that once the range is extended, US Army tactical missiles, like the “Shadow of the Storm” cruise missiles, will be able to directly strike Moscow from within Ukraine.
Some netizens predict that once the US and NATO lift the restrictions on long-range weapons in Ukraine, it is highly probable that Moscow will experience intense bombardment. Domestic order in Russia will be severely disrupted, prices will skyrocket, there may be limited withdrawals from banks, and power outages could become common. With Russia being bombarded everywhere internally, the Russian military’s logistical support will spiral out of control, leading to a high probability of the military surrendering en masse.
In my view, the scenario of Moscow being “intensely bombarded” is unlikely to occur because even if the US and NATO lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, Ukrainian forces are likely to be constrained to target only military or related facilities and likely prohibited from bombing residential areas. However, this would probably cause significant chaos in the social and economic order, severely affecting the daily lives of ordinary people and causing public unrest.
In fact, the ruling authorities are the most afraid of this situation because when an “especially military action” abroad lets their people experience life in a war zone, the “halo” of any great plan will disappear. We can see this from Putin’s recent remarks, hoping that China, Brazil, and India will act as peace negotiation coordinators. It indicates that someone is not as confident as they were two years ago.
Interestingly, just as Putin made this statement, some have rushed to respond to his proposal. China and Brazil put forth a “peace proposal.” While most people are still unclear about what this “peace proposal” entails, Zelensky has already spoken out, saying that China and Brazil’s proposal is utterly unviable, merely political showmanship. He directly pointed out that this proposal was presented after getting Putin’s approval first, shifting most of the responsibility for the war onto Ukraine, preventing Ukraine from reclaiming territories occupied by Russia.
Zelensky bluntly stated that the “peace proposal” put forth by China and Brazil is destructive. With a touch of sarcasm, he added, “One must remember that Russia’s love is temporary, whereas Russia’s disrespect for the rule of law is permanent.”
National politics are ruthless in this manner. When you’re at the peak of power, other countries flatter you. However, when you begin to decline, many hidden dissatisfactions will surface.
Many people may not be aware that beyond Russian territory lies an enclave, known as Kaliningrad, situated between Poland and Lithuania. Before World War II, it belonged to Germany and was later annexed by Russia post-war. However, with the progress of the Russo-Ukrainian war, especially after the Ukrainian military invaded Kursk Oblast in Russia, a significant number of Russian troops from the Kaliningrad region were redeployed to the front lines, leading to the emergence of independence movements locally, with tens of thousands of people demanding independence.
In a recent referendum in Kaliningrad, 73% of the local population demanded secession from the Russian Federation to form the Baltic Republic and stand with Europe.
Moreover, at this critical juncture, the usually pro-Russian Turkish President Erdogan has surprisingly made a turn.
According to the Turkish Anadolu Agency, Erdogan expressed in a video speech that returning Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law. Erdogan stated, “Turkey sincerely hopes to end the war on the basis of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence, and achieve a just and lasting peace.”
Simultaneously, a former Chinese PLA National Defense University professor, Gong Fangbin, who had previously expressed support for Ukraine online, was disciplined by the Beijing Municipal CCP Discipline Inspection Commission.
On September 11, someone posted online: “On the afternoon of September 10, the General Branch of the Military Retirees held an enlarged meeting specifically to convey the notice of Gong Fangbin’s disciplinary action. Gong Fangbin is a professor at the PLA National Defense University. The notice stated that he was reprimanded by senior officials at work for two instances of improper remarks. Not long ago, he blatantly posted erroneous remarks online, saying ‘Russia will be defeated’ and ‘Ukraine will win,’ which seriously violated our country’s neutral position and contradicted the central strategy regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. To strictly enforce party discipline and political discipline, the Beijing Municipal Discipline Inspection Commission issued a party warning to him.”
Unexpectedly, a large number of netizens questioned: Is this a neutral stance? Will so many people online who say “Russia will win” also be disciplined? If not, does this imply that the Chinese government actually supports Russia’s non-neutral position?
Some questioned: 1. Who are the “senior officials” conducting the reprimand? 2. What defines “improper remarks”? Regular humans probably cannot answer these two questions clearly. Some netizens even added fuel to the fire, saying: This must be fake news because our Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson stated: China is a country with freedom of speech!
Alright, that’s all for this edition of “Current Events Scan.” We need your support, so please subscribe to our channel, support us, like, comment, and share. If you’re willing to support us directly with funding, we’d be even more grateful. Until next time.
Subscribe to the YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@jinsaomiao
Subscribe to the Clean World channel:
https://www.ganjing.com/zh-TW/channel/1fdr1livvlu2gQAfvU2nJXR3H17m0c